JANETS WORLD:
SHOWDOWN AT THE CAPELLA HOTEL
The North Korea–United States summit is an upcoming summit between the leaders of North Korea and the United States. It is scheduled to take place on June 12, 2018, at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa Island in Singapore. This will be the first meeting between an incumbent U.S. President and the leader of North Korea.
While many are skeptical of the wisdom of elevating the status of the North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un in a summit with the leader of the free world, President Donald Trump, it remains an open question as to whether anything useful can come out of the meeting.
Russia's foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, embraced the meeting saying "it is a step in the right direction" instead of "fire and fury".
Those in attendance for the June 12th meeting:
United States
President Donald Trump
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
National Security Advisor John R. Bolton
White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly
North Korea
Chairman of the State Affairs Commission
Kim Jong-un
Nonetheless, President Trump, in order to achieve the objective of complete denuclearization of North Korea (NK), must be prepared to have many arrows in his quiver. As Kim Jong-Un will be sitting at the table, make no mistake, the President and his team will actually be negotiating with China. After all, without China’s assistance, there would be no nuclear weapons program in North Korea, certainly not one as advanced as it currently is today.
In order to achieve the desired, complete, verified denuclearization of North Korea, there are many actions the President must be prepared to take against North Korea that will also be sending a direct message to China’s President Xi Jinping.
Accordingly, all North Korean sanctions, as well as most tariffs against China, must remain in place. Clearly, the first action that must be taken is that a team of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors must verify that North Korea actually destroyed its nuclear weapons test site on 24 May—and, a more difficult task, that there are no other backup sites to take its place.
The next step should be the removal of the Chinese manufactured Transporter Erector Launchers (TELs) that give North Korea the capability to launch an ICBM in 30 minutes versus the two hours it would otherwise take.
Next, North Korea is pushing to complete work on a new submarine believed to be capable of launching multiple ballistic missiles (SLBMs). The date for completion is scheduled prior to 9 September 2018, the 70th anniversary of the founding of North Korea. The ballistic missile submarine launch tubes must be removed or sealed shut.
To put substance into our past declaration that “all options are being considered,” a new dynamic must be introduced into the Korean equation. President Trump should have plans all ready to implement the withdrawal of all U.S. military dependents on short notice from South Korea. This will not only remove a “hostage force” from the South Korean environment but will significantly enhance the declaration that all options are on the table.
Japan is also directly affected by North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. Tokyo could positively add to general deterrence by modifying Article Nine of its constitution. providing Japan with advanced hypersonic cruise missile systems which would also help raise the deterrence equation.
The United States and North Korea have fundamentally incompatible interests. Kim and his regime want to retain power. To do so they need to maintain a closed, rigidly oppressive regime, with minimal contact with and ideological contamination from the much more prosperous South Korea. North Korea also believes that nuclear weapons are essential to the regime’s survival — and to warding off threats from the South and from the United States.
It’s not likely to result in the peaceful denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
Denuclearization is unlikely. Its doubtful North Korea would ever agree to give up its nuclear weapons, for a simple reason. The United States cannot offer North Korea what it wants, which is a credible commitment not to threaten the regime in the future.
Why not? The answer comes down to trust: The United States and North Korea would be foolish to trust any promises the other side makes in Singapore. Without a minimum of trust, any deal would be either cosmetic, incomplete or doomed to fail
By Janet Varney
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