Is Soros Paying Republican Senators Not to Run for Re-election,WHY ARE THEY BAILING OUT ?

The 2018 Congressional Retirement Tracker

The Senate’s confirmation of Oklahoma Representative Jim Bridenstine to serve as NASA administrator creates another open seat for Republicans to defend in November. Here's a running list of all the lawmakers calling it quits.

If you want to see a political wave forming a year before an election, watch the retirements.

They’re often a leading indicator for which direction a party is headed, and so far, 2018 is shaping up ominously for Republicans, who will be defending twice as many open seats this fall as Democrats. By far the biggest and most consequential retirement announcement came in early April, as Speaker Paul Ryan told his colleagues he would not seek reelection to his House seat this fall.

Ryan’s exit is just one more in a long and still-growing list of Republican retirements that will force the party to defend dozens of open seats in November. And his decision could give Democrats a chance to pick up his Wisconsin district, which voted for Barack Obama in 2008 but supported Donald Trump by 10 points in 2016. Democrats had targeted the speaker for defeat, and election forecasters had recently taken Ryan off the list of safe Republican incumbents.

Besides Ryan, several other veteran Republicans in competitive districts are calling it quits, depriving the GOP of the advantage of incumbency in races that could determine control of the House in 2019. And more retirements may be on the way, as lawmakers make their final decisions about running ahead of their respective primaries.

At the same time, a wave of allegations of sexual harassment and other inappropriate behavior has scrambled the retirement picture in both parties, and it’s forced several lawmakers to leave Congress early. Republican Representative Patrick Meehan of Pennsylvania, and Joe Barton of Texas, and Democratic Representative Ruben Kihuen of Nevada have abandoned reelection campaigns after misconduct allegations. Scandals have already forced the immediate resignations of Democratic Senator Al Franken and long-serving Representative John Conyers, as well as GOP Representatives Trent Franks and Tim Murphy. Representative Blake Farenthold of Texas first announced he would forgo his reelection bid after acknowledging he agreed to a taxpayer-funded harassment settlement with a former staffer. But in early April, he resigned from Congress altogether. More retirements or resignations could be on the way as new allegations come to light.

As for those getting out in 2018, President Trump’s low approval rating and Congress’s meager legislative output may be contributing to the decisions of some Republicans to retire, including moderate Representatives Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida, Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania, Rodney Frelinghuysen and Frank LoBiondo of New Jersey, and Dave Reichert of Washington state. But there are other factors at play. Unlike Democrats, Republicans have rules limiting the terms of their committee chairmen to ensure turnover and give younger members a chance to advance in the House. Congress isn’t as fun with less power, and six of the departing GOP committee leaders would be forced out of their roles and to the back bench in 2019.

Some Republicans untainted by scandal aren’t even finishing out their terms. Representative Pat Tiberi of Ohio left office in January to take a job with the Ohio Business Roundtable, and Dent announced in April that he would resign within a few weeks, having apparently determined that with the campaign season approaching, Congress wasn’t likely to get much more done this year. Republicans lost another member on Thursday with the Senate’s long-delayed confirmation of Oklahoma Representative Jim Bridenstine to serve as NASA administrator. Bridenstine’s departure opens up his seat, though there will be no special election to replace him and his conservative district is likely to remain with the GOP.

The trend to this point gives a distinct edge to the Democrats. While roughly the same number of lawmakers in both parties are leaving their seats to run for higher office, just 11 House Democrats are retiring outright or have already resigned, compared with 27 Republicans. (House members running for other offices often count as retirements, because it’s usually impractical or illegal to run for multiple positions at the same time.) Including those members who are leaving to run for another office, there will be 19 open House seats vacated by Democrats and 41 by Republicans. (The death of Representative Louise Slaughter of New York in March gave Democrats an additional open seat to defend.) Conor Lamb’s victory in a special House election in a Pennsylvania district that voted strongly for Trump could spur more retirements among Republicans worried about the national political environment under Trump.

And although Democrats must defend far more Senate seats than Republicans in 2018—including several in states that Trump won—all of the party’s incumbents are currently running for reelection. The retirements of Corker and Flake, along with a Democratic victory in December’s special election in Alabama, give Democrats an outside chance at retaking the Senate majority. In the House, they’ll need to pick up 23 more seats after Lamb’s win in Pennsylvania. And the more Republicans retire in districts that Clinton carried last year, the more the GOP majority is at risk.

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