Ukraine: What do I Know?
My brother-in-law long hosted a radio show called “Whad’ya know?” The answer to which was always, “Not much.” I feel that way about the Russian attacks on Ukraine. It’s not that I haven’t tried. I’ve read everything I consider reliable on the subject and can’t begin to answer if the Russians are bogged down or simply regrouping. If they or the Ukrainians will win this fight.
Oh, there are some things I do know. I know that we've been bombarded by propaganda on both sides, and the Ukrainians have been particularly effective in making Putin the world’s pariah and his country along with him, despite the fact that thousands of Russians taking great risks are openly protesting this war. I know that civilians on both sides of the border are suffering great losses. I know that Ukrainian President Zelensky has charmed much of the world with his bravery and resistance calls. I know that the German government has taken an about-face and is upping its contributions to NATO, looking at strengthening its own conventional energy sources and, finally, regarding Russia as a more significant threat than Germany has for decades.
What I particularly don’t know is the effectiveness of the sanctions and what we and those who oppose Russian intervention in Ukraine should do. (Yes, I’ve read a lot of compelling articles about how prior U.S. administrations -- with the exception of Trump’s -- set the stage for this by, among other things, pushing NATO to Russia’s borders and interfering outrageously in Ukraine and withdrawing anti-missile support from eastern Europe and then stationing NATO troops in Poland and the Baltic States.) Worse yet, they provocatively and falsely accused Russia of interfering with the 2016 election. As the late Angelo Codevilla wrote:
All this produced a mess of appeasement, provocation, insult, and enmity without much of an international point on either side -- another lesson in the consequences of incompetence mixed with self-indulgence at the highest level.
What I am unclear about is what should we do now. Surveys I’ve seen indicate many -- maybe a majority of those polled -- want us to create and enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine. What are they thinking? Do they realize this would mean shooting down Russian planes and expanding this war even further? Others talk about offering Ukraine NATO membership -- again, what are they thinking? Do they really wish to commit to stationing our troops against Russia? Whatever you think of the effectiveness of the Russian troops, and whether their slow advance this week has weakened your fear of them, it still would likely greatly escalate this war into something broader and worse. If you don’t like supply shortages, even higher taxes, and the high-handed government tyranny which marked the response to COVID (a disease which, like Dr. Fauci, seems mysteriously to have sunk from view), I guarantee you you’ll get it good and hard if we rush to defend Ukraine militarily.
To better understand Russia’s present situation and interests (and ours) I urge you to read in its entirely the Codevilla article. You will see why he said, “Ukraine is the greatest practical limitation on Russia’s ambitions. Its independence is very much a U.S. interest, but it is beyond our capacity to secure.” He contended that the only part of Ukraine that Russia can control is the Russian part. "...while we can foster Ukrainian independence, that independence depends on the Ukrainians themselves, and we should foreswear turning them into our pawns or even giving the impression 'that they may be.'" I suppose in practical terms that means we should supply needed weapons and humanitarian aid, but no troops nor any promises of military defense by us.
I realize that there is a great deal of emotion-driven support for our doing more. Heck, even the ridiculous Style Section of the Washington Post was full of articles this week supporting Ukraine. (Of course, past experience shows that while the left is often gung-ho on getting us embroiled in overseas military adventures, once these are underway they run from responsibility for them and demand immediate withdrawal at great cost to nationals in those countries who worked with us.) If all this sounds too depressing, Lord Conrad Black has a different view, that the end result of all this will be a negotiated deal and a strengthened West. I’m inclined to agree with him. He’s quite right when he argues that Russia’s move into Ukraine is not the same as the Soviet repression of Czechoslovakia and Hungary. The USSR under which that took place had twice the population of present-day Russia, an immense army, and “almost complete control of the borders of the countries over which it was reasserting control.” On the other hand, as he observes:
The Ukrainian army today consists of over 200,000 highly trained and well-equipped soldiers, who know every square inch of their own country, are fanatically determined to defend it, and have been armed to the teeth with the most sophisticated weaponry, along with a reserve force of 900,000.”
He notes in addition “Ukraine is being supplied with virtually inexhaustible stores of mobile and sophisticated ground-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles and received constant, exhaustive intelligence from NATO satellite and aerial reconnaissance and other sources that detail all Russian movements in Ukraine.” Russia, as he also noted, has so primitive an economy that it has a GDP smaller than Canada’s. Sanctions will make that worse. As for China, it is being inconvenienced by the sanctions against Russia and wants a negotiated end to this.
Russia could not physically maintain the subjugation of all of Ukraine. It probably would accept a compromise settlement allowing Ukraine’s eastern provinces to be declared autonomous and Ukraine promising not to join NATO, and this compromise, Black argues, will allow the West to emerging stronger from this ordeal. NATO is already starting to shape up and Germany “has announced its return to its rightful role as Europe’s leading partner but in a positive and collegial context, and the long-festering issue of what would happen to the former republics of the U.S.S.R. will be substantially answered satisfactorily.”This scenario makes sense. I can only summarize it here and urge you to read it all.
The world has been fundamentally changed by Ukraine. This is true, although nearly all Western coverage has been scaredy-cat and daft.
Russia expected to waltz into Ukraine. It didn‘t. Russian forces have failed in all their objectives. A thousand Russian soldiers die each day of the assault. In the four days prior to this writing, 4,000 have died. This is twice the number of American deaths in Afghanistan over twenty years.
(And no, Kyiv was never surrounded, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy lives. Indeed, the airport near Kyiv was retaken by local Ukrainian forces; in essence state-level reservists, who retook the airport from Russian elite troops.)
What this means is that the myth of Russian might has been broken for all time.
It doesn‘t matter if the war isn't over. This is evident from the last four days. And there really are no reserves to be thrown in. They would have been thrown in already.
Second, the myth that Russia poses no threat, that it is a normal country if a bit misunderstood, that it is anything other than a primitive dictatorship, has been exploded.
Believe it or not, this myth was held even in the higher reaches of NATO and many European countries which had never been occupied by the Russians. That includes Germany.
Germany for the first time since WWII is sending war materiel to a war zone. It has voted to double its piddling 1 percent GDP armed forces spending. It's suspended Nord Stream 2.
Even Portugal is sending war materiel to Ukraine. Not to be outdone, the European Union has decided to purchase equipment to send. (EU thankfully has no army.)
Russian planes cannot fly in the European Union. The country has been removed from SWIFT. Its central bank's reserves are being frozen.
Even sports organizations are recognizing the outlaw nature of Russia.
What this means is that Russia has been recognized as an international pariah.
Or to use a phrase being used by many Eastern Europeans in social media posts, such as Mordor.
Thirdly, it is certain now that Ukraine at some point will join the European Union and NATO. Perhaps not soon, but the will of its people to have a normal country is undeniable. Their will to accomplish this is being forged in fire.
Note that, with Poland and Lithuania, countries with which it has been associated for hundreds of years, it would form a block larger in population than Germany. Needless to say, this would change the balance of power within the countries of Europe, and of the EU as well.
What this means is that Ukraine as a country wishes to be a normal country amongst other civilized countries, and it won‘t accept any level of Russian dominance or influence.
Ukraine's people now despise the Russians; to use social media parlance of recent days, one doesn't give in to orcs.
That in turn is why maverick former Democrat Rep. Tulsi Gabbard could not be more wrong. She has repeatedly insisted America should have told Russia that Ukraine will never join NATO. What a fool. This is precisely wrong. One must always leave the door open for those countries that have hope to become fully Western. To do otherwise would be to give such countries over to the forces of evil for them to do what they like with them. Now Ukraine has hope, and the hope and desire for decency are inspiring their fight, which they are winning.
How did Russia make such a miscalculation?
Some smart people say it's because Putin and his cronies believed their own propaganda. But that‘s not really it.
Consider that, if God forbid, Russia had been invading Lithuania, they would have killed civilians indiscriminately. Lithuanians are not Slavs, and the Russians know they aren't wanted there, and they hate Lithuanians for it.
But the Russians see, or saw, Ukrainians as part of themselves. That is why they wanted to invade. The invading Russian soldiers were given strict orders not to harm Ukrainian civilians, which proves the point.
This also shows a fundamental problem. Russian soldiers don‘t know why they are there. They have no motivation. They believed Ukrainians would love them. They don‘t get that the reverse is true. Some Lithuanians in Ukraine report that the Russian armed forces seem to be sleepwalking.
All that Russia has accomplished in Ukraine is that ethnic Russians living in Ukraine are joining the Ukrainian armed forces. And they hate the invader to death.
What will happen next?
Russia will lose. It has run out of many types of munitions -- and fuel. Its soldiers go unfed and without ammunition. The war is costing Russia unsustainable sums. The freezing of its central bank reserves along with other economic sanctions taken by the West is beginning to create unheard-of inflation. Hundreds of tanks and armored carriers blown apart or abandoned line the road north of Kyiv.
Ukraine has to hold out for some time longer. And it will. And it will win. If the reader thinks this is an exaggeration or some overly hopeful wishful thinking, the reader is wrong.
Slava Ukraini - Glory to Ukraine.
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